I rarely have anything good to say about this administration. I must, however, commend vice president J.D. Vance for his initiative in reaching down the military hierarchy to get the unfiltered views of generals and admirals in the field.
By doing so, he has avoided the two major barriers to effective decision-making: groupthink and absorptive capacity.
With groupthink, displeasing messages get filtered out before they reach the ruler. Presidents Kennedy, Johnson, and George W. Bush all suffered from groupthink. The Bay of Pigs, the decision to bomb North Vietnam and the Iraq adventures all provide us with ample illustration of groupthink. This magnificently Orwellian term was coined by psychologist Irving Janis in 1972 to refer to a group’s inability to tolerate dissent to a situation in which getting agreement around a solution becomes more important than developing the best solution. By reaching down the hierarchy to people on the ground, Vance ensures that disturbing messages do get to the top decision-making body. Now, of course, the president has to listen to and weigh these dissenting views.
Uncertainty absorption occurs in chains of communication in which raw data are summarized, are aggregated and are edited before being transmitted onward. In other words, the raw data is changed and maybe lost completely. Two processes are involved: the selection of data from incoming stimuli; and the packaging of this data for transmission. In both, the monitor/communicator’s frame of reference or cognitive map is crucial in determining what information will be noticed and what information will be transmitted. In either process, information can either be suppressed, attenuated or enhanced.
For example, information of a minor troop movement may seem insignificant to those observing it so that information is not passed up the line – but the information would be significant when combined with information about other troop movements in different sectors. Because it is discounted at the local level, this relevant information known at the start of the communication chain may never reach the end of the chain, like the telephone game played at parties but much more serious.
By reaching down to the operational level, Vance has bypassed the potential distortions and may have received accurate information needed to make good decisions.
There is alas, one other barrier that reaching down does not eliminate: self-serving subordinates. These are people that tell their superiors what the superiors want to hear. In today’s Washington, this might be the most severe danger. We have seen how secretary of defense Pete Hegseth treats those whose actions he disapproves of: he removes them from their positions; he delays their promotions; he rejects their advice.
Self-serving occurs in two ways. First, people exaggerate the importance of their sector, thereby ensuring that resources and attention are focused on the things they do. Second, there is a suppression of bad news and an exaggeration of good news to ensure that they get the rewards and promotions available. This tendency is likely to be particularly strong in the climate of mistrust and fear created by Hegseth in the higher ranks of the military.
To get a more accurate picture, the vice president would be well advised to go one or two steps below his current informants.
Martin G. Evans is a freelance writer. He writes about managerial and political issues, with contributions to The Boston Globe, Boston Business Journal and elsewhere, and was previously a professor at the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, and has taught at the London Business School, Harvard School of Public Health and elsewhere.
